On the Quantum and Tempo of Women First Marriages in China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The total first marriage rate (TFMR) of Chinese women shows a downward trend in fluctuations from 1970 to 2016, but it is affected by the tempo distortion caused by changes in the mean age at first marriage. Thus, we compare the total first marriage rate (TFMR) and tempo-adjusted period proportion ever married (PPEM*) to estimate the extent to which the TFMR is affected by tempo effects. We also decompose the women's TFMR change into its quantum and tempo components from 1970 to 2016 to analyze how much of the changes in TFMR are due to the quantum changes and how much of it is caused by tempo effects. The results show that the tempo effects have had a persistent influence on the period TFMR of Chinese women from 1970 to 2016. The recent decline in the TFMR in Chinese women is mainly due to the first marriage delay, not signaling a retreat from universal marriage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".