Correlation-Preserving Mean Plausible Values as a Basis for Prediction in the Context of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mean plausible values can be computed when Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) is performed. As mean plausible values do not preserve the factor inter-correlations, they yield path coefficients that are different from the estimated path coefficients of the model. As it might be of interest to perform exactly the same predictions on the level of mean plausible values that have been estimated by BSEM, correlation-preserving mean plausible values were proposed. An example for the computation of the correlation preserving mean plausible values is given and the corresponding syntax can be found in the Appendix.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it