DeepPrecip: a deep neural network for precipitation retrievals
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Remotely-sensed precipitation retrievals are critical for advancing our understanding of global energy and hydrologic cycles in remote regions. Radar reflectivity profiles of the lower atmosphere are commonly linked to precipitation through empirical power laws, but these relationships are tightly coupled to particle microphysical assumptions that do not generalize well to different regional climates. Here, we develop a robust, highly generalized precipitation retrieval algorithm from a deep convolutional neural network (DeepPrecip) to estimate 20 min average surface precipitation accumulation using near-surface radar data inputs. DeepPrecip displays a high retrieval skill and can accurately model total precipitation accumulation, with a mean square error (MSE) 160 % lower, on average, than current methods. DeepPrecip also outperforms a less complex machine learning retrieval algorithm, demonstrating the value of deep learning when applied to precipitation retrievals. Predictor importance analyses suggest that a combination of both near-surface (below 1 km) and higher-altitude (1.5–2 km) radar measurements are the primary features contributing to retrieval accuracy. Further, DeepPrecip closely captures total precipitation accumulation magnitudes and variability across nine distinct locations without requiring any explicit descriptions of particle microphysics or geospatial covariates. This research reveals the important role for deep learning in extracting relevant information about precipitation from atmospheric radar retrievals.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".