Did the Milky Way just light up? The recent star formation history of the Galactic disc
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We map the stellar age distribution (≲1 Gyr) across a 6 kpc × 6 kpc area of the Galactic disc in order to constrain our Galaxy’s recent star formation history. Our modelling draws on a sample that encompasses all presumed disc O-, B-, and A-type stars (∼500 000 sources) with G < 16. To be less sensitive to reddening, we did not forward-model the detailed CMD distribution of these stars; instead, we forward-modelled the K-band absolute magnitude distribution, n(MK), among stars with MK < 0 and Teff > 7000 K at certain positions x in the disc as a step function with five age bins, b(τ | x, α), logarithmically spaced in age from τ = 5 Myr to τ ∼ 1 Gyr. Given a set of isochrones and a Kroupa initial mass function, we sampled b(τ | x, α) to maximise the likelihood of the data n(MK | x, α), accounting for the selection function. This results in a set of mono-age stellar density maps across a sizeable portion of the Galactic disc. These maps show that some, but not all, spiral arms are reflected in overdensities of stars younger than 500 Myr. The maps of the youngest stars (< 10 Myr) trace major star-forming regions. The maps at all ages exhibit an outward density gradient and distinct spiral-like spatial structure, which is qualitatively similar on large scales among the five age bins. When summing over the maps’ areas and extrapolating to the whole disc, we find an effective star formation rate over the last 10 Myr of ≈ 3.3 M⊙ yr−1, higher than previously published estimates that had not accounted for unresolved binaries. Remarkably, our stellar age distribution implies that the star formation rate has been three times lower throughout most of the last Gyr, having risen distinctly only in the very recent past. Finally, we used TNG50 simulations to explore how justified the common identification of local age distribution with global star formation history is: we find that the global star formation rate at a given radius in Milky Way-like galaxies is approximated within a factor of ∼1.5 by the young age distribution within a 6 kpc × 6 kpc area near R⊙.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".