Multidecadal Variation in the Seasonal Predictability of Winter PNA and Its Sources
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Based on reanalysis and ensemble hindcasts data, this work investigates the multidecadal variation in the seasonal predictability of the Pacific‐North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern during the winter and its sources. The results show that at the two ends of the 20th century, the PNA is mostly driven by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and a good seasonal prediction of the PNA is expected if models can accurately predict the PNA‐ENSO relationship. During the middle 20th century, the PNA is not only driven by ENSO but also closely linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation through the air‐sea coupling process in the extratropical North Pacific. Improvements in the seasonal prediction of the PNA require models to accurately predict both the PNA‐ENSO relationship and the air‐sea coupling in the northern extratropical Pacific.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".