Optimal cardiometabolic health and risk of heart failure in type 2 diabetes: an analysis from the Look AHEAD trial
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To evaluate the contribution of baseline and longitudinal changes in cardiometabolic health (CMH) towards heart failure (HF) risk among adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants of the Look AHEAD trial with T2D and without prevalent HF were included. Adjusted Cox models were used to create a CMH score incorporating target levels of parameters weighted based on relative risk for HF. The associations of baseline and changes in the CMH score with risk of overall HF, HF with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were assessed using Cox models. Among the 5080 participants, 257 incident HF events occurred over 12.4 years of follow-up. The CMH score included 2 points each for target levels of waist circumference, glomerular filtration rate, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and 1 point each for blood pressure and glycated haemoglobin at target. High baseline CMH score (6-8) was significantly associated with lower overall HF risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], ref = low score (0-3): 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.47) with similar associations observed for HFpEF and HFrEF. Improvement in CMH was significantly associated with lower risk of overall HF (adjusted HR per 1-unit increase in score at 4 years: 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.91). In the ACCORD validation cohort, the baseline CMH score performed well for predicting HF risk with adequate discrimination (C-index 0.70), calibration (chi-square 5.53, p = 0.70), and risk stratification (adjusted HR [high (6-8) vs. low score (0-3)]: 0.35, 95% CI 0.26-0.46). In the Look AHEAD subgroup with available biomarker data, incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide to the baseline CMH score improved model discrimination (C-index 0.79) and risk stratification (adjusted HR [high (8-10) vs. low score (0-4)]: 0.18, 95% CI 0.09-0.35). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving target levels of more CMH parameters at baseline and sustained improvements were associated with lower HF risk in T2D.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it