Variational inference as iterative projection in a Bayesian Hilbert space with application to robotic state estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense “closest” to the full Bayesian posterior. Closeness is typically defined through the selection of an appropriate loss functional such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we explore a new formulation of variational inference by exploiting the fact that (most) PDFs are members of a Bayesian Hilbert space under careful definitions of vector addition, scalar multiplication, and an inner product. We show that, under the right conditions, variational inference based on KL divergence can amount to iterative projection, in the Euclidean sense, of the Bayesian posterior onto a subspace corresponding to the selected approximation family. We work through the details of this general framework for the specific case of the Gaussian approximation family and show the equivalence to another Gaussian variational inference approach. We furthermore discuss the implications for systems that exhibit sparsity, which is handled naturally in Bayesian space, and give an example of a high-dimensional robotic state estimation problem that can be handled as a result. We provide some preliminary examples of how the approach could be applied to non-Gaussian inference and discuss the limitations of the approach in detail to encourage follow-on work along these lines.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it