National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2021–2022: A brief, late influenza epidemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canadian seasonal influenza circulation had been suppressed since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This suppression was reported globally and generated concern that the return of community influenza circulation could be intense and that co-circulation of influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was possible and potentially severe. Community circulation of influenza returned to Canada during the 2021-2022 influenza season. The influenza epidemic began in week 16 (mid-April 2022) and lasted only nine weeks. This epidemic was driven by influenza A(H3N2) and was exceptionally late in the season, low in intensity and short in length. Community co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 was observed in Canada for the first time during the 2021-2022 seasonal influenza epidemic. The unusual characteristics of the 2021-2022 influenza epidemic suggest that a breadth of factors moderate transmission dynamics of the two viruses. Concerns of an intense seasonal influenza epidemic did not come to fruition during the 2021-2022 season; therefore, high influenza susceptibility remains, as does predisposition to larger influenza epidemics. Ongoing circulation of SARS-CoV-2 creates uncertainty about dynamics of future influenza epidemics, but influenza vaccination remains a key public health intervention available to protect Canadians. Public health authorities need to remain vigilant, maintain surveillance and continue to plan for both heightened seasonal influenza circulation and for the potential for endemic co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".