Bleeding and ischaemic events after first bleed in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients: risk and timing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To determine the risk of subsequent adverse clinical outcomes in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who experienced a new bleeding event. METHODS AND RESULTS: Anticoagulated AF patients were followed in two prospective cohort studies. Information on incident bleeding was systematically collected during yearly follow-up visits and events were adjudicated as major bleeding or clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB) according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis guidelines. The primary outcome was a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), or all-cause death. Time-updated multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to compare outcomes in patients with and without incident bleeding. Median follow-up was 4.08 years [interquartile range (IQR): 2.93-5.98]. Of the 3277 patients included (mean age 72 years, 28.5% women), 646 (19.7%) developed a new bleeding, 297 (9.1%) a major bleeding and 418 (12.8%) a CRNMB. The incidence of the primary outcome was 7.08 and 4.04 per 100 patient-years in patients with and without any bleeding [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-1.61; P < 0.001; median time between a new bleeding and a primary outcome 306 days (IQR: 23-832)]. Recurrent bleeding occurred in 126 patients [incidence, 8.65 per 100 patient-years (95% CI: 7.26-10.30)]. In patients with and without a major bleeding, the incidence of the primary outcome was 11.00 and 4.06 per 100 patient-years [aHR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.69-2.46; P < 0.001; median time to a primary outcome 142 days (IQR: 9-518)], and 59 had recurrent bleeding [11.61 per 100 patient-years (95% CI: 8.99-14.98)]. The incidence of the primary outcome was 5.29 and 4.55 in patients with and without CRNMB [aHR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.76-1.15; P = 0.53; median time to a composite outcome 505 days (IQR: 153-1079)], and 87 had recurrent bleeding [8.43 per 100 patient-years (95% CI: 6.83-10.40)]. Patients who had their oral anticoagulation (OAC) discontinued after their first bleeding episode had a higher incidence of the primary composite than those who continued OAC (63/89 vs. 159/557 patients; aHR: 4.46, 95% CI: 3.16-6.31; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In anticoagulated AF patients, major bleeding but not CRNMB was associated with a high risk of adverse outcomes, part of which may be explained by OAC discontinuation. Most events occurred late after the bleeding episode, emphasizing the importance of long-term follow-up in these patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".