To the Origin of a Wintertime Screen-Level Temperature Bias at High Altitude in a Kilometric NWP Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems present a strong potential to provide meteorological information in alpine terrain for diverse applications. However, they still suffer from biases highly detrimental for practical purposes. In this study, we investigate the origin of a significant wintertime screen-level temperature bias in forecasts of the AROME-France NWP system in high-altitude, snow-covered alpine terrain. For this purpose, a thorough set of meteorological and snow observations from two high-altitude instrumental sites is used. Targeted numerical simulations are carried out to disentangle the contributions to this bias coming from atmospheric fields, from the snow scheme, and from the coupling between the snowpack and the atmosphere. At both sites, the wind speed and incoming longwave radiation appear significantly negatively biased in AROME in the winter season. Using targeted offline simulations, we show that the simulation errors in these screen-level fields contribute to an average of 67% of the screen-level temperature bias of AROME, while the contribution of errors in the incoming shortwave radiation is negligible. Additionally, the screen-level temperature of AROME is not majorly impacted by changes in the complexity and especially the vertical layering of the snow model. However, it appears particularly sensitive to the parameterization of turbulent fluxes in stable conditions. Evidence suggest that these findings could at least partially be generalized to the whole AROME-France alpine domain. Hence, reducing the high-altitude, winter screen-level temperature bias in AROME may in great part proceed from improving the simulation of atmospheric fields and eliminating some bias compensations in the model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".