Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer and import prices by estimating a smooth transition regression model with different inflation expectations regimes for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and three non-targeters (the US, the Euro-Area and Switzerland) respectively over the period January 1993–August 2021. Both market and survey measures of inflation expectations are used as the transition variable, and the nonlinear model is also assessed against a benchmark linear model. The pass-through to both consumer and import prices is found to be stronger in the nonlinear model and in some cases is close to being complete. Also, it is stronger in regime 2, i.e. when markets and consumers expect high inflation rates in the future; this suggests that anchoring inflation expectations helps to reduce the ERPT. Finally, inflation expectations appear to affect the ERPT more in inflation targeting countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".