Origins of harvested American black ducks: stable isotopes support the flyover hypothesis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Waterfowl management is more effective when based on detailed information on population connectivity between breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. For the American black duck (Anas rubripes), a species of conservation concern, estimates for the fall age ratio at harvest differed depending on whether harvest data were derived from Canada or the United States, suggesting regional differences. Within Canada, hunters in Atlantic Canada were more likely to harvest black ducks from nearby breeding locations compared to hunters in southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada, who were more likely to harvest individuals from the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield of eastern Canada. Black ducks harvested in the United States are thought to originate predominantly from northern portions of the breeding range, leading to the flyover hypothesis, which postulates that black ducks produced in the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield region are less susceptible to harvest by hunters in Atlantic Canada and northeastern United States. To test the flyover hypothesis, we examined regional and temporal differences in the origins of harvested black ducks using feathers from wings (n = 664) submitted by hunters to the species composition and parts collection surveys across 3 hunting seasons (2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). We used a likelihood‐based assignment method that relied on feather stable‐hydrogen isotopes (δ2H) and stable‐carbon isotopes (δ13C) to determine the natal or molt origin of individuals harvested within eastern Canada and the United States. We also used a spatial clustering technique to group harvested individuals by area of origin without a priori knowledge of such regions. Adult female black ducks originated farther south compared to males and juveniles. All sexes and ages of black ducks harvested in Atlantic Canada showed predominantly southern origins, while those harvested in the United States and other Canadian provinces primarily originated farther north within the boreal, supporting the flyover hypothesis. By contrast, we found no relationship between timing of harvest or peaks of migration and individual origin. After combining band returns and stable isotopes, we inferred 2 distinct stocks: the Mississippi flyway stock and the Atlantic flyway stock. We recommend that regional demographic parameters, particularly for Atlantic Canada, be directly measured to promote more effective conservation of black ducks and optimize harvest opportunities in the United States and Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".