Abrupt Northern Baffin Bay Autumn Warming and Sea‐Ice Loss Since the Turn of the Twenty‐First Century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A delay in autumn sea ice formation is an important consequence of Arctic Amplification. Baffin Bay is one such region impacted by delayed ice formation, though spatiotemporal analyses to date have not detailed the evolution and drivers of such autumn ice changes. In this study, we document abrupt Baffin Bay sea ice cover changes in the key transition month of October from 1950 to 2021. The ice cover mean and variance dramatically change from 2001 onward with a transition to largely ice‐free conditions in the northeast and thinner ice in the northwest. Ocean model experiments attribute these changes to warming of the Atlantic‐origin water (AOW) flowing into northeastern Baffin Bay from the south. Transport and upwelling of this above‐freezing AOW has stunted ice formation in this area, while the basin's cyclonic surface current has contributed to reduced cooling and ice formation in the northwestern portion of Baffin Bay.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".