Policy Forum: Tax Expenditures—Lessons from the Elimination of Ontario's Tuition and Education Tax Credits
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stanley Surrey and others have highlighted tax expenditures as being hidden forms of spending that can evade the type of analysis and scrutiny applied to direct spending programs, allowing inefficient and inequitable programs to persist. But there is only limited empirical evidence on differences in the persistence of similar programs in a tax measure compared to a direct spending form. The conversion of Ontario's education and tuition tax expenditures into a direct form of spending via the existing student aid program provides an interesting case study. As discussed in this article, although the tax credits had never been the subject of a value-for-money audit, the student aid program was reviewed in 2018 shortly after the changeover, to hearty criticism of its distributional effects despite its being less regressive than the tax credit versions. This led to substantial cuts in the program, in line with views on the persistence of tax expenditures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.010 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".