Automatic Prediction of Paediatric Cardiac Output From Echocardiograms Using Deep Learning Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Cardiac output (CO) perturbations are common and cause significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate CO assessment is crucial for guiding treatment in anaesthesia and critical care, but measurement is difficult, even for experts. Artificial intelligence methods show promise as alternatives for accurate, rapid CO assessment. Methods We reviewed paediatric echocardiograms with normal CO and a dilated cardiomyopathy patient group with reduced CO. Experts measured the left ventricular outflow tract diameter, velocity time integral, CO, and cardiac index (CI). EchoNet-Dynamic is a deep learning model for estimation of ejection fraction in adults. We modified this model to predict the left ventricular outflow tract diameter and retrained it on paediatric data. We developed a novel deep learning approach for velocity time integral estimation. The combined models enable automatic prediction of CO. We evaluated the models against expert measurements. Primary outcomes were root-mean-squared error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). Results In a test set unused during training, CI was estimated with the root-mean-squared error of 0.389 L/min/m 2 , mean absolute error of 0.321 L/min/m 2 , mean average percentage error of 10.8%, and R 2 of 0.755. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that the models estimated CI with a bias of +0.14 L/min/m 2 and 95% limits of agreement -0.58 to 0.86 L/min/m 2 . Conclusions Our model estimated CO with strong correlation to ground truth and a bias of 0.17 L/min, better than many CO measurements in paediatrics. Model pretraining enabled accurate estimation despite a small dataset. Potential uses include supporting clinicians in real-time bedside calculation of CO, identification of low-CO states, and treatment responses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".