Variation of Runoff and Runoff Components of the Lhasa River Basin in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Climate Change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Quantitative analysis of changes in Lhasa River runoff components was significant to local water resources management. This study constructed the spatial processes in hydrology (SPHY) model in the Lhasa River Basin and optimized the model’s parameters using the hydrograph partitioning curves (HPC) method. The Lhasa River Basin’s precipitation and temperature were forecasted for 2020 to 2100 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and two scenarios from the fifth generation of the Canadian earth system model (CanESM5) dataset, shared socioeconomic pathways 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6) and shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5). This study analyzed the potential changes in Lhasa River runoff and components based on the future climate. The results showed that the Lhasa River runoff from 2010 to 2019 was composed of snowmelt runoff, glacier melt runoff, rainfall runoff, and baseflow, with the proportions of 15.57, 6.19, 49.98, and 28.26%, respectively. From 2020 to 2100, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the precipitation and average temperature increased by 0.76mm and 0.08 °C per decade. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the increasing rate was 3.57 mm and 0.25 °C per decade. Due to the temperature increase, snowmelt and glacier melt runoff showed a decreasing trend. The decline rate of total runoff was 0.31 m3/s per year under the SSP1-2.6 scenario due to the decrease in baseflow. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, total runoff and rainfall runoff showed a clear increasing trend at an average rate of 1.13 and 1.16 m3/s per year, respectively, related to the significant increase in precipitation. These conclusions suggested that climate change significantly impacted the Lhasa River’s total runoff and runoff components.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".