Modus Operandi in Sexual Assaults of Female Strangers Does Not Change Over Time
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Criminological theories and widespread assumptions about crime suggest that the modus operandi involved in sexual crimes should have changed over time given various contextual changes, such as better criminological knowledge (e.g., forensic awareness) as well as improved investigative techniques (e.g., forensic evidence analysis). The aim of this study was to test whether the modus operandi patterns of individuals having committed a sexual assault against female strangers have changed over time during the period of 2003-2017. More specifically, the study has identified changes in the trends of monthly counts and (relative) participations for sexual assaults during the study period in France. The measure of participations - a concept borrowed from the field of criminal career - was used to overcome the inherent limitations associated with this type of data. Results show that despite some significant changes in the modus operandi involved in sexual crimes, overall the modus operandi patterns appear to be fairly stable over time. The findings are discussed in light of their theoretical and practical implications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".