Increased alcohol‐specific mortality in Germany during <scp>COVID</scp>‐19: State‐level trends from 2010 to 2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic may have led to an increase in the alcohol-specific mortality. Against this backdrop, the aim of this report is to explore alcohol-specific mortality trends in Germany of the years 2010 to 2020. METHOD: Alcohol-specific mortality data aggregated by sex, 5-year age groups and state were collected from the annual cause-of-death statistics and analysed descriptively by visual inspection. RESULTS: The overall alcohol-specific mortality rate (age-standardised) has mainly decreased between 2010 and 2020. However, increased alcohol-specific mortality rates for the year 2020 compared to 2019 were found for both, women (+4.8%) and men (+5.5%), particularly in age groups between 40 and 69 years. Changes in alcohol-specific mortality rates differed between federated states, with steeper increases in East Germany. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Different mechanisms related to the increase in alcohol consumption, particularly among high-risk drinkers, and reduced resources in health care may have led to an increase in alcohol-specific mortality in Germany in 2020. Despite the recent decline in the alcohol-specific mortality in Germany, an increase in the death toll was observed in 2020.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".