Spatially consistent microbial biomass and future cellular carbon release from melting Northern Hemisphere glacier surfaces
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Melting glacier ice surfaces host active microbial communities that enhance glacial melt, contribute to biogeochemical cycling, and nourish downstream ecosystems; but these communities remain poorly characterised. Over the coming decades, the forecast ‘peak melt’ of Earth’s glaciers necessitates an improvement in understanding the state and fate of supraglacial ecosystems to better predict the effects of climate change upon glacial surfaces and catchment biogeochemistry. Here we show a regionally consistent mean microbial abundance of 104 cells mL−1 in surface meltwaters from eight glaciers across Europe and North America, and two sites in western Greenland. Microbial abundance is correlated with suspended sediment concentration, but not with ice surface hydraulic properties. We forecast that release of these microbes from surfaces under a medium carbon emission scenario (RCP 4.5) will deliver 2.9 × 1022 cells yr−1, equivalent to 0.65 million tonnes yr−1 of cellular carbon, to downstream ecosystems over the next ~80 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".