Comparative analysis of pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus epidemiology and clinical severity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic affected Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) circulation and surveillance, causing logistical complexity for health systems. Our objective was to describe changes in epidemiology and clinical severity of RSV cases in British Columbia, Canada. Methods Comparative analysis of RSV detections in children <36 months at BC Children’s Hospital (BCCH) between September 1 and August 31 of 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22. Results About one-fifth of children tested RSV positive on average across all periods. The median age of RSV cases was 11.8 [IQR: 3.8–22.3] months in 2021-22 versus 6.3 [IQR: 1.9–16.7] months in 2017-20 (p<0.001). Increased testing in 2021-22 (n=3,120) compared to 2017-20 (average n=1,222/period) detected milder infections with lower proportion hospitalized in all age subgroups <6 (26.0%), 6-11 (12.3%), 12-23 (12.2%) and 24-35 (16.0%) months versus 2017-20 (49.3%, 53.5%, 62.6%, 57.5%, respectively) (all p<0.001). Children <6 months consistently comprised most hospitalizations and those born prematurely <29 weeks or with chronic respiratory co-morbidities remained at highest hospitalization risk in 2021-22. Among hospitalized cases, intensive care, respiratory support or supplemental oxygen use did not differ between the 2017-20 and 2021-22 periods. Conclusions RSV circulation halted during the pandemic, but with the lifting of mitigation measures a subsequent resurgence in children <36 months of age was accompanied by shift toward older (24-35 month) cases in 2021-22, without increased severity. For the 2022-23 period, increased circulation and residual vulnerability in additional birth cohorts spared from RSV infection during the pandemic could have marked cumulative healthcare impact, even without increase in proportion hospitalized.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".