Validation of Prediction Rules for Computed Tomography Use in Children With Blunt Abdominal or Blunt Head Trauma: Protocol for a Prospective Multicenter Observational Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) and intra-abdominal injuries (IAIs) are 2 leading causes of traumatic death and disability in children. To avoid missed or delayed diagnoses leading to increased morbidity, computed tomography (CT) is used liberally. However, the overuse of CT leads to inefficient care and radiation-induced malignancies. Therefore, to maximize precision and minimize the overuse of CT, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) previously derived clinical prediction rules for identifying children at high risk and very low risk for IAIs undergoing acute intervention and clinically important TBIs after blunt trauma in large cohorts of children who are injured. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to validate the IAI and age-based TBI clinical prediction rules for identifying children at high risk and very low risk for IAIs undergoing acute intervention and clinically important TBIs after blunt trauma. METHODS: This was a prospective 6-center observational study of children aged <18 years with blunt torso or head trauma. Consistent with the original derivation studies, enrolled children underwent routine history and physical examinations, and the treating clinicians completed case report forms prior to knowledge of CT results (if performed). Medical records were reviewed to determine clinical courses and outcomes for all patients, and for those who were discharged from the emergency department, a follow-up survey via a telephone call or SMS text message was performed to identify any patients with missed IAIs or TBIs. The primary outcomes were IAI undergoing acute intervention (therapeutic laparotomy, angiographic embolization, blood transfusion, or intravenous fluid for ≥2 days for pancreatic or gastrointestinal injuries) and clinically important TBI (death from TBI, neurosurgical procedure, intubation for >24 hours for TBI, or hospital admission of ≥2 nights due to a TBI on CT). Prediction rule accuracy was assessed by measuring rule classification performance, using standard point and 95% CI estimates of the operational characteristics of each prediction rule (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and diagnostic likelihood ratios). RESULTS: The project was funded in 2016, and enrollment was completed on September 1, 2021. Data analyses are expected to be completed by December 2022, and the primary study results are expected to be submitted for publication in 2023. CONCLUSIONS: This study will attempt to validate previously derived clinical prediction rules to accurately identify children at high and very low risk for clinically important IAIs and TBIs. Assuming successful validation, widespread implementation is then indicated, which will optimize the care of children who are injured by better aligning CT use with need. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/43027.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".