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Record W4310053724 · doi:10.1111/rssa.12986

Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference

2022· article· en· W4310053724 on OpenAlex
Stanley E. Lazic

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsPrioris.ai (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsArtificial intelligenceComputer scienceCounterfactual thinkingArtificial neural networkInferenceDeep learningCausal inferenceMachine learningCausal modelPsychologyMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This book presents a theoretical overview of recent developments at the interface between deep neural networks and causal inference (although the title mentions Artificial Intelligence, the methods discussed are exclusively neural networks). Chapters 1–4 introduce deep learning models, including variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks and neural networks as Gaussian processes. Chapter 5 then discusses causal models, including Pearl’s do-calculus, mediation analysis, confounding, instrumental variables and how these can be integrated with neural networks. The remaining chapters discuss various topics that combine both deep neural networks and causal inference, such as reinforcement learning and counterfactual reasoning. Both deep learning and causal inference are fast-moving fields, and the author covers the latest topics and methods well. The book has a high ratio of equations to text, and even more technical material is contained in appendices at the end of each chapter. No worked examples with data are provided to illustrate how the methods should be implemented; however, at the end of each chapter links to software packages and code (primarily GitHub repositories) developed by others are provided. Although readers will gain a mathematical understanding of the latest methods, they will have to look elsewhere for examples of how to analyse and interpret the results.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.553
Threshold uncertainty score0.694

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.031
GPT teacher head0.283
Teacher spread0.251 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it