Association Between Body Mass Index Variation and Early Mortality Among 834 Ethiopian Adults Living with HIV on ART: A Joint Modelling Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Body mass index (BMI) is a simple and cost-effective tool for monitoring the clinical responses of patients living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, especially in resource-limited settings where access to laboratory tests are limited. Current evidence on the association between longitudinal BMI variation and clinical outcomes among adults living with HIV receiving ART is essential to inform clinical guidelines. Therefore, this study examines the association between BMI variation and premature mortality in adults living with HIV on ART. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 834 adults living with HIV receiving ART from June 2014 to June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Northwest Ethiopia. We first identified predictors of mortality and BMI variation using proportional hazards regression and linear mixed models, respectively. Then, the two models were combined to form an advanced joint model to examine the effect of longitudinal BMI variation on mortality. RESULTS: Of the 834 participants, 49 (5.9%) died, with a mortality rate of 4.1 (95% CI 3.1, 5.4) per 100 person-years. A unit increase in BMI after ART initiation corresponded to an 18% reduction in mortality risk. Patients taking tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT), mild clinical disease stage, and changing ART regimens were at lower risk of death. However, patients with ambulatory/bedridden functional status were at higher risk of death. Regarding BMI variation over time, patients presenting with opportunistic infections (OIs), underweight patients, patients who started a Dolutegravir (DGT)-based ART regimen, and those with severe immunodeficiency had a higher BMI increase over time. However, patients from rural areas and overweight/obese patients experienced a lower BMI increase over time. CONCLUSION: BMI improvement after ART initiation was strongly associated with a lower mortality risk, regardless of BMI category. This finding implies that BMI may be used as a better predictor tool for death risk in adults living with HIV in Ethiopia. Additionally, patients who took a DGT-based ART regimen had a higher BMI increase rate over time, which aligns with possible positive effects, such as weight gain, of the DGT-based ART regimen in developing countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".