How Many Pan-Arctic Lakes Are Observed by ICESat-2 in Space and Time?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High-latitude lakes are sensitive indicators of climate change. Monitoring lake dynamics in high-latitude regions (e.g., pan-Arctic regions) is essential to improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change; however, the lack of in situ water level measurements limits comprehensive quantification of the lake hydrologic dynamics in high-latitude regions. Fortunately, the newly launched ICESat-2 laser altimeter can provide finer footprint measurements and denser ground tracks, thus enabling us to measure the water level changes for more lakes than with conventional radar altimeters. This study aims to comprehensively assess the number and frequency of pan-Arctic lakes (>1 km2, north of 60°N) observable by the ICESat-2 in space and time over the past three years. Further, we analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the ICESat-2-based water level observations of these pan-Arctic lakes based on our customized classification of seasonal coverage patterns (wet/dry season, monthly, and ten-day). We find that the ICESat-2 observed 80,688 pan-Arctic lakes (97% of the total). Among the observed lakes, the ICESat-2 retrieved the seasonal coverage patterns for 40,192 lakes (~50% of observed lakes), accounting for nearly 84% of the area and 95% of the volumetric capacity. Most lakes (99%) have seasonal water-level fluctuation amplitudes within a range of 0–1 m. The latitudinal zonality analysis demonstrates that the seasonal change in pan-Arctic lake levels gently fluctuates around 0.5 m between 60°N and 74°N and becomes intense (range of level change from 1 m to 2 m) beyond 74°N. Our results are expected to offer an overall reference for the spatio-temporal coverage of the ICESat-2’s observations of pan-Arctic lakes, which is crucial for comprehending the hydrologic response of high-latitude lakes to ongoing climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".