Maximizing the impact of limited vaccine supply under different early epidemic conditions: a 2-city modelling analysis of monkeypox virus transmission among men who have sex with men
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The current global monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Given that many jurisdictions have been faced with limited supplies of MPXV vaccine, we aimed to explore optimal vaccine allocation between 2 linked GBMSM transmission networks over a short-term time horizon, across several epidemic conditions. METHODS: ), between-city mixing and distribution of seed cases between cities. For each combination of varied factors, we identified the allocation of doses between cities that maximized infections averted by day 90. RESULTS: ), optimal allocation required doses shared between cities. INTERPRETATION: In the context of the current global MPXV outbreak, we showed that prioritization of a limited supply of vaccines based on network-level factors can help maximize infections averted during an emerging epidemic. Such prioritization should be grounded in an understanding of context-specific risk drivers and should acknowledge potential connectedness of multiple transmission networks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".