Validation of Photovoltaic Spectral Effects Derived From Satellite-Based Solar Irradiance Products
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF) Spectral Resolved Irradiance (SRI) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Solar Radiation Database Spectral on Demand (NSRDB-S) satellite-based spectral irradiance products are tested here against benchmark data and models at seven ground stations: one in Spain for CM-SAF SRI and six in North America for NSRDB-S. Benchmarks include WISER spectroradiometers, spectra modeled from SolarSIM-G measurements, the First Solar model of spectral mismatch factor (SMM), and the SMARTS radiative code with two alternate input sources: AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis. The satellite products are tested in terms of their ability to estimate photovoltaic (PV) spectral effects for six PV module technologies. Spectra are also compared directly. CM-SAF SRI generally outperforms First Solar and “no spectral effects” benchmarks, except for cadmium telluride modules. For NSRDB-S, predictions of long-term spectral derate factors show less skill than for instantaneous SMMs. Spectra comparisons reveal systematic differences between NSRDB-S and benchmark spectra, likely due to the NSRDB-S treatment of aerosols. Meanwhile, the mean SMARTS spectra with AERONET and MERRA-2 inputs are in good agreement, showing promise for the use of MERRA-2 as input to clear-sky models.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it