Expectations for Horizon-Scale Supermassive Black Hole Population Studies with the ngEHT
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present estimates for the number of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) for which the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) can identify the black hole “shadow”, along with estimates for how many black hole masses and spins the ngEHT can expect to constrain using measurements of horizon-resolved emission structure. Building on prior theoretical studies of SMBH accretion flows and analyses carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaboration, we construct a simple geometric model for the polarized emission structure around a black hole, and we associate parameters of this model with the three physical quantities of interest. We generate a large number of realistic synthetic ngEHT datasets across different assumed source sizes and flux densities, and we estimate the precision with which our defined proxies for physical parameters could be measured from these datasets. Under April weather conditions and using an observing frequency of 230 GHz, we predict that a “Phase 1” ngEHT can potentially measure ∼50 black hole masses, ∼30 black hole spins, and ∼7 black hole shadows across the entire sky.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it