Phenotype Algorithms to Identify Hidradenitis Suppurativa Using Real-World Data: Development and Validation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a potentially debilitating, chronic, recurring inflammatory disease. Observational databases provide opportunities to study the epidemiology of HS. OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to develop phenotype algorithms for HS suitable for epidemiological studies based on a network of observational databases. METHODS: A data-driven approach was used to develop 4 HS algorithms. A literature search identified prior HS algorithms. Standardized databases from the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (n=9) were used to develop 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS phenotype algorithms. Two open-source diagnostic tools, CohortDiagnostics and PheValuator, were used to evaluate and generate phenotype performance metric estimates, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value. RESULTS: We developed 2 prevalent and 2 incident HS algorithms. Validation showed that PPV estimates were highest (mean 86%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least two HS diagnosis codes. Sensitivity estimates were highest (mean 58%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least one HS code. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the evaluation process and provides performance metrics for 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS algorithms across 9 observational databases. The use of a rigorous data-driven approach applied to a large number of databases provides confidence that the HS algorithms can correctly identify HS subjects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".