Phenotype Algorithms to Identify Hidradenitis Suppurativa Using Real-World Data: Development and Validation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a potentially debilitating, chronic, recurring inflammatory disease. Observational databases provide opportunities to study the epidemiology of HS. OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to develop phenotype algorithms for HS suitable for epidemiological studies based on a network of observational databases. METHODS: A data-driven approach was used to develop 4 HS algorithms. A literature search identified prior HS algorithms. Standardized databases from the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (n=9) were used to develop 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS phenotype algorithms. Two open-source diagnostic tools, CohortDiagnostics and PheValuator, were used to evaluate and generate phenotype performance metric estimates, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value. RESULTS: We developed 2 prevalent and 2 incident HS algorithms. Validation showed that PPV estimates were highest (mean 86%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least two HS diagnosis codes. Sensitivity estimates were highest (mean 58%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least one HS code. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the evaluation process and provides performance metrics for 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS algorithms across 9 observational databases. The use of a rigorous data-driven approach applied to a large number of databases provides confidence that the HS algorithms can correctly identify HS subjects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.032 | 0.080 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".