Predicting longitudinal brain atrophy in Parkinson’s disease using a Susceptible-Infected-Removed agent-based model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Parkinson’s disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by accumulation of abnormal isoforms of alpha-synuclein. Alpha-synuclein is proposed to act as a prion in Parkinson’s disease: In its misfolded pathologic state, it favors the misfolding of normal alpha-synuclein molecules, spreads trans-neuronally, and causes neuronal damage as it accumulates. This theory remains controversial. We have previously developed a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) computational model that simulates the templating, propagation, and toxicity of alpha-synuclein molecules in the brain. In this study, we test this model with longitudinal MRI collected over 4 years from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (1,068 T1 MRI scans, 790 Parkinson’s disease scans, and 278 matched control scans). We find that brain deformation progresses in subcortical and cortical regions. The SIR model recapitulates the spatiotemporal distribution of brain atrophy observed in Parkinson’s disease. We show that connectome topology and geometry significantly contribute to model fit. We also show that the spatial expression of two genes implicated in alpha-synuclein synthesis and clearance, SNCA and GBA, also influences the atrophy pattern. We conclude that the progression of atrophy in Parkinson’s disease is consistent with the prion-like hypothesis and that the SIR model is a promising tool to investigate multifactorial neurodegenerative diseases over time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it