Prediction of incident cardiovascular events using machine learning and CMR radiomics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the feasibility of using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) radiomics in the prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We identified participants from the UK Biobank who experienced incident AF, HF, MI, or stroke during the continuous longitudinal follow-up. The CMR indices and the vascular risk factors (VRFs) as well as the CMR images were obtained for each participant. Three-segmented regions of interest (ROIs) were computed: right ventricle cavity, left ventricle (LV) cavity, and LV myocardium in end-systole and end-diastole phases. Radiomics features were extracted from the 3D volumes of the ROIs. Seven integrative models were built for each incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) as an outcome. Each model was built with VRF, CMR indices, and radiomics features and a combination of them. Support vector machine was used for classification. To assess the model performance, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were reported. RESULTS: AF prediction model using the VRF+CMR+Rad model (accuracy: 0.71, AUC 0.76) obtained the best result. However, the AUC was similar to the VRF+Rad model. HF showed the most significant improvement with the inclusion of CMR metrics (VRF+CMR+Rad: 0.79, AUC 0.84). Moreover, adding only the radiomics features to the VRF reached an almost similarly good performance (VRF+Rad: accuracy 0.77, AUC 0.83). Prediction models looking into incident MI and stroke reached slightly smaller improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics features may provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident CVDs. KEY POINTS: • Prediction of incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction using machine learning techniques. • CMR radiomics, vascular risk factors, and standard CMR indices will be considered in the machine learning models. • The experiments show that radiomics features can provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident cardiovascular diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".