Weighted kernels improve multi-environment genomic prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Crucial to variety improvement programs is the reliable and accurate prediction of genotype's performance across environments. However, due to the impactful presence of genotype by environment (G×E) interaction that dictates how changes in expression and function of genes influence target traits in different environments, prediction performance of genomic selection (GS) using single-environment models often falls short. Furthermore, despite the successes of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the genetic insights derived from genome-to-phenome mapping have not yet been incorporated in predictive analytics, making GS models that use Gaussian kernel primarily an estimator of genomic similarity, instead of the underlying genetics characteristics of the populations. Here, we developed a GS framework that, in addition to capturing the overall genomic relationship, can capitalize on the signal of genetic associations of the phenotypic variation as well as the genetic characteristics of the populations. The capacity of predicting the performance of populations across environments was demonstrated by an overall gain in predictability up to 31% for the winter wheat DH population. Compared to Gaussian kernels, we showed that our multi-environment weighted kernels could better leverage the significance of genetic associations and yielded a marked improvement of 4-33% in prediction accuracy for half-sib families. Furthermore, the flexibility incorporated in our Bayesian implementation provides the generalizable capacity required for predicting multiple highly genetic heterogeneous populations across environments, allowing reliable GS for genetic improvement programs that have no access to genetically uniform material.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".