Relationship between Stock Returns and Trading Volume at the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières, West Africa
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to study the contemporaneous relationship and the dynamic relationship between the stock index return and the trading volume on the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières using daily data from 5 January 2015 to 31 October 2022. Estimations are made using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity or GARCH (1,1) specifications for the contemporaneous regressions and the vector autoregressive specification for the dynamic (causal) relationship. The contemporaneous specifications show that there is no significant relationship between stock returns and trading volume. Neither of the two variables significantly influences the other. Furthermore, the dynamic specification shows a causality running from stock returns to trading volume but the reverse is not true. For the period covered by the study, the results invalidate both the mixture of distribution hypothesis and the sequential information arrival hypothesis and open the way for other considerations such as behavioral models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".