The Effects of Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine on Global Markets
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter aims to test the efficient market hypothesis, in its weak form, in the capital markets of Germany (DAX), USA (Dow Jones), France (CAC 40), UK (FTSE 100), Italy (FTSE MIB), Russia (MOEX), Japan (NIKKEI 225), Canada (S&P TSX), China (Shanghai and Shenzhen), as well as the exchange rates Rouble/Canadian, Rouble/Euro, Rouble/Swiss, Rouble/UK, Rouble/US, over the period from January 2, 2017 to May 6, 2022. The time series do not exhibit normal distributions and are stationary in first differences. To answer the research question, the authors use the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method, which allows evidence of an increase in DFA exponents. Capital markets and exchange rates, for the most part, moved from equilibrium to persistent, while Russia's market in the tranquil period shows signs of equilibrium and moves to anti-persistent in the crisis period.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it