Incidence of and Experiences with Abortion Attempts in Soweto, South Africa: Respondent-Driven Sampling Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Estimation of abortion incidence, particularly in settings where most abortions occur outside of health facility settings, is critical for understanding information gaps and service delivery needs in different settings. However, the existing methods for measuring out-of-facility abortion incidence are plagued with methodological challenges. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) may offer a methodological improvement in the estimation of abortion incidence. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we tested the feasibility of using RDS to recruit participants into a study about abortion and estimated the proportion of people who ever attempted abortion as well as 1-year and 5-year incidence of abortion (both in-facility and out-of-facility settings) among women of reproductive age in Soweto, South Africa. METHODS: Participants were eligible if they identified as a woman; were aged between 15 and 49 years; spoke English, Tswana, isiZulu, Sotho, or Xhosa; and lived in Soweto. Working with community partners, we identified 11 seeds who were provided with coupons to refer eligible peers to the study. Upon arrival at the study site, the recruits completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire that solicited information about demographic characteristics, social network composition, health behaviors, sexual history, pregnancy history, and experience with abortion; recruits also received 3 recruitment coupons. Recruitment was tracked using coupon numbering. We used the RDS-II estimator to estimate the population proportions of demographic characteristics and our primary outcome, the proportion of people who ever attempted abortion. RESULTS: Between April 4, 2018, and December 17, 2018, 849 eligible participants were recruited into the study. The estimated proportion of people who ever attempted abortion was 12.1% (95% CI 9.7%-14.4%). A total of 7.1% (95% CI 5.4%-8.9%) reported a facility-based abortion, and 4.4% (95% CI 3.0%-5.8%) reported an out-of-facility abortion. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated proportion of people who ever attempted abortion of 12% (102/849) in our study likely represents a substantial underestimation of the actual proportion of abortion attempts among this study population-representing a failure of the RDS method to generate more reliable estimates of abortion incidence in our study. We caution against the use of RDS to measure the incidence of abortion because of persistent concerns with underreporting but consider potential alternative applications of RDS with respect to the study of abortion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".