Personalized prediction of incident hospitalization for cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension using machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prognostic information for patients with hypertension is largely based on population averages. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of four machine learning approaches for personalized prediction of incident hospitalization for cardiovascular disease among newly diagnosed hypertensive patients. METHODS: Using province-wide linked administrative health data in Alberta, we analyzed a cohort of 259,873 newly-diagnosed hypertensive patients from 2009 to 2015 who collectively had 11,863 incident hospitalizations for heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Linear multi-task logistic regression, neural multi-task logistic regression, random survival forest and Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the number of event-free survivors at each time-point and to construct individual event-free survival probability curves. The predictive performance was evaluated by root mean squared error, mean absolute error, concordance index, and the Brier score. RESULTS: The random survival forest model has the lowest root mean squared error value at 33.94 and lowest mean absolute error value at 28.37. Machine learning methods provide similar discrimination and calibration in the personalized survival prediction of hospitalizations for cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. Neural multi-task logistic regression model has the highest concordance index at 0.8149 and lowest Brier score at 0.0242 for the personalized survival prediction. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first personalized survival prediction for cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive patients using administrative data. The four models tested in this analysis exhibited a similar discrimination and calibration ability in predicting personalized survival prediction of hypertension patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".