An artificial neural network classification method employing longitudinally monitored immune biomarkers to predict the clinical outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The severe form of COVID-19 can cause a dysregulated host immune syndrome that might lead patients to death. To understand the underlying immune mechanisms that contribute to COVID-19 disease we have examined 28 different biomarkers in two cohorts of COVID-19 patients, aiming to systematically capture, quantify, and algorithmize how immune signals might be associated to the clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients. Methods: The longitudinal concentration of 28 biomarkers of 95 COVID-19 patients was measured. We performed a dimensionality reduction analysis to determine meaningful biomarkers for explaining the data variability. The biomarkers were used as input of artificial neural network, random forest, classification and regression trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector machines. Two different clinical cohorts were used to grant validity to the findings. Results: We benchmarked the classification capacity of two COVID-19 clinicals studies with different models and found that artificial neural networks was the best classifier. From it, we could employ different sets of biomarkers to predict the clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients. First, all the biomarkers available yielded a satisfactory classification. Next, we assessed the prediction capacity of each protein separated. With a reduced set of biomarkers, our model presented 94% accuracy, 96.6% precision, 91.6% recall, and 95% of specificity upon the testing data. We used the same model to predict 83% and 87% (recovered and deceased) of unseen data, granting validity to the results obtained. Conclusions: In this work, using state-of-the-art computational techniques, we systematically identified an optimal set of biomarkers that are related to a prediction capacity of COVID-19 patients. The screening of such biomarkers might assist in understanding the underlying immune response towards inflammatory diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".