Identifying Hot Spots of Tuberculosis in Nigeria Using an Early Warning Outbreak Recognition System: Retrospective Analysis of Implications for Active Case Finding Interventions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) cases are the major challenge to TB control in Nigeria. An early warning outbreak recognition system (EWORS) is a system that is primarily used to detect infectious disease outbreaks; this system can be used as a case-based geospatial tool for the real-time identification of hot spot areas with clusters of TB patients. TB screening targeted at such hot spots should yield more TB cases than screening targeted at non-hot spots. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of an EWORS for TB hot spot mapping as a tool for detecting areas with increased TB case yields in high TB-burden states of Nigeria. METHODS: KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation Nigeria deployed an EWORS to 14 high-burden states in Nigeria. The system used an advanced surveillance mechanism to identify TB patients' residences in clusters, enabling it to predict areas with elevated disease spread (ie, hot spots) at the ward level. TB screening outreach using the World Health Organization 4-symptom screening method was conducted in 121 hot spot wards and 213 non-hot spot wards selected from the same communities. Presumptive cases identified were evaluated for TB using the GeneXpert instrument or chest X-ray. Confirmed TB cases from both areas were linked to treatment. Data from the hot spot and non-hot spot wards were analyzed retrospectively for this study. RESULTS: During the 16-month intervention, a total of 1,962,042 persons (n=734,384, 37.4% male, n=1,227,658, 62.6% female) and 2,025,286 persons (n=701,103, 34.6% male, n=1,324,183, 65.4% female) participated in the community TB screening outreaches in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas, respectively. Presumptive cases among all patients screened were 268,264 (N=3,987,328, 6.7%) and confirmed TB cases were 22,618 (N=222,270, 10.1%). The number needed to screen to diagnose a TB case in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas was 146 and 193 per 10,000 people, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Active TB case finding in EWORS-mapped hot spot areas yielded higher TB cases than the non-hot spot areas in the 14 high-burden states of Nigeria. With the application of EWORS, the precision of diagnosing TB among presumptive cases increased from 0.077 to 0.103, and the number of presumptive cases needed to diagnose a TB case decreased from 14.047 to 10.255 per 10,000 people.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".