How Much More Data Do I Need? Estimating Requirements for Downstream Tasks
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given a small training data set and a learning algorithm, how much more data is necessary to reach a target validation or test performance? This question is of critical importance in applications such as autonomous driving or medical imaging where collecting data is expensive and time-consuming. Overestimating or underestimating data requirements incurs substantial costs that could be avoided with an adequate budget. Prior work on neural scaling laws suggest that the power-law function can fit the validation performance curve and extrapolate it to larger data set sizes. We find that this does not immediately translate to the more difficult downstream task of estimating the required data set size to meet a target performance. In this work, we consider a broad class of computer vision tasks and systematically investigate a family of functions that generalize the power-law function to allow for better estimation of data requirements. Finally, we show that incorporating a tuned correction factor and collecting over multiple rounds significantly improves the performance of the data estimators. Using our guidelines, practitioners can accurately estimate data requirements of machine learning systems to gain savings in both development time and data acquisition costs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it