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Record W4313204447 · doi:10.31004/joe.v5i1.695

Siklus Bisnis Perekonomian Indonesia di Masa Pandemi COVID-19

2022· article· en· W4313204447 on OpenAlex
Teguh Warsito

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal on Education · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicSMEs Development and Digital Marketing
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRecessionBusiness cycleEconomicsEconomic recoveryCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Quarter (Canadian coin)Monetary economicsReal gross domestic productGovernment spendingMacroeconomicsGeographyMarket economyWelfare

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Covid-19 pandemic has become one of the biggest shocks to the Indonesian economy. As a result of the pandemic, there was deep pressure on aggregate demand and aggregate supply as well, so the economic output decreased and was not at optimal output levels. This paper will show the business cycle or economic fluctuations that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic. The method used in this paper is the decomposition of Indonesia's quarterly real GDP for the 2000-2022 period into the growth trend and short-term fluctuations using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) Filter. The results of this study indicate that in the first quarter of 2020, Indonesia experienced an economic contraction and was followed by a recession in the following quarter. After that, economic recovery occurred and reached long-term optimal output after 1.5 years. The characteristics of a recession and economic recovery followed a W-Shaped due to new pressures during the recovery process caused by the Delta variant, so a new recession occurred. By looking at the business cycle of the economy, the government can implement appropriate policies both fiscal and monetary at each phase.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.723
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0020.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.039
GPT teacher head0.345
Teacher spread0.306 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it