Large Interferometer for Exoplanets: VIII. Where Is the Phosphine? Observing Exoplanetary PH <sub>3</sub> with a Space-Based Mid-Infrared Nulling Interferometer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phosphine could be a key molecule in the understanding of exotic chemistry that occurs in (exo)planetary atmospheres. While phosphine has been detected in the Solar System's giant planets, it has not been observed in exoplanets to date. In the exoplanetary context, however, it has been theorized to be a potential biosignature molecule. The goal of our study was to identify which illustrative science cases for PH3 chemistry are observable with a space-based mid-infrared nulling interferometric observatory like the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE) concept. We identified a representative set of scenarios for PH3 detections in exoplanetary atmospheres that vary over the whole dynamic range of the LIFE mission. We used chemical kinetics and radiative transfer calculations to produce forward models of these informative, prototypical observational cases for LIFEsim, our observation simulator software for LIFE. In a detailed, yet first order approximation, it takes a mission like LIFE: (i) about 1 h to find phosphine in a warm giant around a G star at 10 pc, (ii) about 10 h in H2 or CO2 dominated temperate super-Earths around M star hosts at 5 pc, (iii) and even in 100 h it seems very unlikely that phosphine would be detectable in a Venus-Twin with extreme PH3 concentrations at 5 pc. Phosphine in concentrations previously discussed in the literature is detectable in 2 out of the 3 cases, and it is detected about an order of magnitude faster than in comparable cases with James Webb Space Telescope. We show that there is a significant number of objects accessible for these classes of observations. These results will be used to prioritize the parameter range for the next steps with more detailed retrieval simulations. They will also inform timely questions in the early design phase of a mission like LIFE and guide the community by providing easy-to-scale first estimates for a large part of detection space of such a mission.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".