Tularemia above the Treeline: Climate and Rodent Abundance Influences Exposure of a Sentinel Species, the Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus), to Francisella tularensis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tularemia is a zoonotic disease found throughout most of the northern hemisphere that may experience range expansion with warming temperatures. Rodents and lagomorphs are reservoirs for the disease, and outbreaks of tularemia often follow peaks in their abundance. As small mammals dominate the diet of arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), we determined whether they may serve as sentinels by identifying antibodies in live-captured and harvested foxes from northern Canada. Overall seroprevalence was 2% (CI95 1–2%) in 176 foxes harvested in 2018–2019 compared to 17% (CI95 12–22%) of 230 foxes captured live in 2011–2021. Prevalence was at an all-time high in 2018, following a peak in vole abundance in 2017. Antibodies were identified in fox pups born in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that F. tularensis was actively transmitted during the summers. High precipitation during the summer, increased snow cover and colder temperatures in May, and a higher abundance of voles were all associated with increased seroprevalence in live-captured foxes. Thus, exposure to F. tularensis is largely mediated through climate and rodent populations in the Canadian Arctic, and arctic foxes are useful sentinels for F. tularensis in northern ecosystems. Further studies should investigate whether infection impacts arctic fox survival and reproductive success in the circumpolar North.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".