Evaluation of CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, CHIRPS V2.0, TMPA 3B42 V7, and GPM IMERG V6 Satellite Precipitation Datasets in Arabian Arid Regions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rainfall depth is a crucial parameter in water resources and hydrological studies. Rain gauges provide the most reliable point-based rainfall estimates. However, they do not have a proper density/distribution to provide sufficient rainfall measurements in many areas, especially in arid regions. To evaluate the adequacy of satellite datasets as an alternative to the rain gauges, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is selected for the current study as a representative of the arid regions. KSA occupies most of the Arabian Peninsula and is characterized by high variability in topographic and climatic conditions. Five satellite precipitation datasets (SPDSs)—CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, CHIRPS V2.0, TMPA 3B42 V7, and GPM IMERG V6—are evaluated versus 324 conventional rain-gauges’ daily precipitation measures. The evaluation is conducted based on nine quantitative and categorical metrics. The evaluation analysis is carried out for daily, monthly, yearly, and maximum yearly records. The daily analysis revealed a low correlation for all SPDSs (<0.31), slightly improved in the yearly and maximum yearly analysis and reached its highest value (0.58) in the monthly analysis. The GPM IMERG V6 and PERSIANN-CDR have the highest probability of detection (0.55) but with a high false alarm ratio (>0.8). Accordingly, in arid regions, the use of daily SPDSs in rainfall estimation will lead to high uncertainty in the obtained results. The best performance for all statistical metrics was found at 500–750 m altitudes in the central and northern parts of the study area for all satellites except minor anomalies. CMORPH dataset has the lowest centered root mean square error (RMSEc) for all analysis periods with the best results in the monthly analyses.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it