The Quest for Effective Tobacco Control Strategies: Revisiting Price and Taxation Policy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The prevailing wisdom in scholarly and policy-making institutions dealing with public health is that skillful use of price and taxation policy will reduce the prevalence of tobacco consumption because of the inverse relationship between tobacco price and consumption. Empirical evidence of this axiomatic inverse relationship has been sparse. This paper analyzes the effects of increased taxation on consumption of tobacco products in 162 countries during 2005-2020. Results indicate that there is weak negative relationship between change in adult smoking prevalence and change in taxation suggesting that higher tax rates on tobacco products tend to lower adult smoking prevalence, but in a modest rather than robust sort of way. The small negative association indicates that perhaps it will take very large tax increases to meaningfully affect adult smoking.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.050 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.018 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".