Does plant-based milk reduce sales of dairy milk? Evidence from the almond milk craze
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In recent years, there has been significant growth in the sales of plant-based alternatives to meat and dairy products. However, it remains unclear whether these alternatives are actually reducing sales of livestock-derived products. This paper examines the relationship between the sales of one particular livestock-derived product – unflavored dairy milk – and its plant-based alternative – nondairy milk. Using data from a panel of US consumers between 2004 and 2018, I find that a 1-gallon increase in nondairy milk sales is associated with a 0.43–0.60 gallon reduction in dairy milk sales. The inverse relationship between dairy and nondairy milk purchases is strongest among households with high initial expenditure on dairy milk. Despite the inverse relationship between dairy and nondairy milk purchases, the rapid increase in nondairy milk sales between 2009 and 2018 explains little of the concomitant decline in dairy milk sales.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".