Predicting Treatment Responses in Patients With Osteoarthritis: Results From Two Phase III Tanezumab Randomized Clinical Trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Prediction of treatment responses is essential to move forward translational science. Our question was to identify patient-based variables that predicted responses to treatments. We conducted secondary analyses on pooled data from two randomized phase III clinical trials (NCT02697773 and NCT02709486) conducted in participants with moderate to severe osteoarthritis randomized to subcutaneous placebo (n = 514) or tanezumab 2.5 mg (n = 514). We used gradient boosted regression trees to identify variables that predicted Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) Pain subscale scores at Week 16 and marginal plots to determine the directional relationship between each variable category and responses to placebo or tanezumab within the models. We also used Virtual Twins models to identify potential subgroups of response to the active treatment vs. placebo. We found that responses to placebo were predicted by baseline WOMAC Physical Function, baseline WOMAC Pain, the radiographic classification of the index joint, and the standard deviation of diary pain scores at baseline. In contrast, baseline WOMAC Pain along with failure of prior medications, duration of disease, and standard deviation of diary pain scores at baseline were predictive of tanezumab responses as expressed by the WOMAC Pain scores at Week 16. Those who responded to tanezumab vs. placebo were identified based on the radiographic classification of the index joint and either age or smoking status. These secondary-data analyses identified distinct and common patient-based variables to predict response to placebo or tanezumab. These findings will inform the design of future clinical trials, helping to move forward clinical pharmacology and translational science.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.082 | 0.087 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.013 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".