Clay–rock fracturing risk assessment under high gas pressures in repository systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract At the interface between the steel canister and the bentonite in a nuclear waste repository, we expect generation of hydrogen gas because of corrosion processes. The pressurized gas might fracture the engineered or natural clay barrier system, enhancing radionuclide transport into the geosphere. To assess the long-term integrity of the clay host rock under various conditions and scenarios, we need a large number of numerical simulations. However, a simulation tool for complex fracture propagation is often prohibitively expensive to run many realizations. Here, we developed a risk analysis tool based on the Design of Experiments to overcome the computational challenges by generating a computationally inexpensive proxy fracture model using a set of critical factors known as heavy hitters. We provided parameters and their probability distributions that are subject to uncertainty, as well as an objective function that assesses the risk of fracturing due to high gas pressures. Through various scenarios, we found that the fracture toughness dominates the impact on the risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".