Related Factors for Unfavorable Disease Course in Patients with Crohn’s Disease: An Observational Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Crohn’s disease (CD) manifests a heterogeneous clinical spectrum and disease course, and it is challenging to predict the disease outcome based on initial presentation. Objective: To analyze the long-term disease course and factors leading to poor prognosis of CD. Methods: In total, 112 patients with CD who were initially diagnosed and treated at our institution from January 2009 to August 2020 were included. We analyzed their clinical data, disease characteristics according to the Montreal classification, and the endoscopic and computed tomography (CT) examinations at the initial visit and at 2-year, 5-year, and last follow ups. We categorized the disease course into the following four categories: remission, stable, chronic refractory, and chronic relapsing. Significant factors associated with a poorer prognosis were analyzed. Results: The median follow-up period was 107 (range, 61−139) months. Complicated disease behavior increased slightly over the follow-up period (20.5% to 26.2%). An unfavorable disease course was defined as chronic refractory (19.6%) and relapsing (16.1%) courses. The 2-year disease characteristics were significant factors for unfavorable disease course, and the combination of 2-year perianal disease and 2-year moderate-to-severe CT activity could predict unfavorable disease course with the highest accuracy (0.722; area under the curve: 0.768; p < 0.0001). Conclusions: One-third of the patients with CD showed an unfavorable disease course (35.7%), and 2-year disease characteristics were significant factors for an unfavorable disease course.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".