Type-Preserving, Dependence-Aware Guide Generation for Sound, Effective Amortized Probabilistic Inference
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), a critical step in optimization-based inference methods is constructing, for a given model program, a trainable guide program. Soundness and effectiveness of inference rely on constructing good guides, but the expressive power of a universal PPL poses challenges. This paper introduces an approach to automatically generating guides for deep amortized inference in a universal PPL. Guides are generated using a type-directed translation per a novel behavioral type system. Guide generation extracts and exploits independence structures using a syntactic approach to conditional independence, with a semantic account left to further work. Despite the control-flow expressiveness allowed by the universal PPL, generated guides are guaranteed to satisfy a critical soundness condition and moreover, consistently improve training and inference over state-of-the-art baselines for a suite of benchmarks.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it