Machine learning enables prediction of metabolic system evolution in bacteria
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Evolution prediction is a long-standing goal in evolutionary biology, with potential impacts on strategic pathogen control, genome engineering, and synthetic biology. While laboratory evolution studies have shown the predictability of short-term and sequence-level evolution, that of long-term and system-level evolution has not been systematically examined. Here, we show that the gene content evolution of metabolic systems is generally predictable by applying ancestral gene content reconstruction and machine learning techniques to ~3000 bacterial genomes. Our framework, Evodictor, successfully predicted gene gain and loss evolution at the branches of the reference phylogenetic tree, suggesting that evolutionary pressures and constraints on metabolic systems are universally shared. Investigation of pathway architectures and meta-analysis of metagenomic datasets confirmed that these evolutionary patterns have physiological and ecological bases as functional dependencies among metabolic reactions and bacterial habitat changes. Last, pan-genomic analysis of intraspecies gene content variations proved that even "ongoing" evolution in extant bacterial species is predictable in our framework.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".