Preterm birth is associated with xenobiotics and predicted by the vaginal metabolome
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) is a leading cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, yet its prevention and early risk stratification are limited. Previous investigations have suggested that vaginal microbes and metabolites may be implicated in sPTB. Here we performed untargeted metabolomics on 232 second-trimester vaginal samples, 80 from pregnancies ending preterm. We find multiple associations between vaginal metabolites and subsequent preterm birth, and propose that several of these metabolites, including diethanolamine and ethyl glucoside, are exogenous. We observe associations between the metabolome and microbiome profiles previously obtained using 16S ribosomal RNA amplicon sequencing, including correlations between bacteria considered suboptimal, such as Gardnerella vaginalis, and metabolites enriched in term pregnancies, such as tyramine. We investigate these associations using metabolic models. We use machine learning models to predict sPTB risk from metabolite levels, weeks to months before birth, with good accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78). These models, which we validate using two external cohorts, are more accurate than microbiome-based and maternal covariates-based models (area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.55-0.59). Our results demonstrate the potential of vaginal metabolites as early biomarkers of sPTB and highlight exogenous exposures as potential risk factors for prematurity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".